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\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd(Deep Learning) \uae30\uc220\uc774 \uc811\ubaa9\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ubc95\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc2ec\ub3c4 \uae4a\uc740 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8e8\uc5b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc774\ud574 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740\u2026","rel":"","context":""\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529"\uc5d0\uc11c","block_context":{"text":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 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<\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uae09\uc99d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\ub8e8\uace0, \uadf8 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uace0 \ud655\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0c1\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub3c5\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150, \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac \ubc29\ubc95, \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95, \uc131\ub2a5 \ud3c9\uac00 \ubc0f \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud655\uc7a5 \uae30\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubc30\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

1. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uac1c\ub150 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uae30<\/h2>\n
\uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \uc815\uc758\ud55c \uaddc\uce59\uc774\ub098 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \ub9d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uc8fc\ub85c \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc124\uc815\ub41c \uc870\uac74\uc5d0 \ub9de\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ub54c \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc758 \uc8fc\ubb38\uc744 \uc2e4\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc7a5\uc810\uc740 \uac10\uc815\uc5d0 \ud718\ub458\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uc77c\uad00\ub41c \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70, \ube60\ub978 \uc8fc\ubb38 \uc2e4\ud589\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ucc28\uc774<\/h2>\n
\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc5d0\ub294 \uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5, \ube44\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5, \uac15\ud654 \ud559\uc2b5 \ub4f1\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74\uc5d0 \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud55c \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \uc778\uacf5\uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd(Artificial Neural Networks, ANN)\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub354\uc6b1 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub300\ub7c9\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \ud30c\uc6cc\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 \uc778\uc2dd, \uc790\uc5f0\uc5b4 \ucc98\ub9ac \ub4f1\uc758 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2.1 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150<\/h3>\n
\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc8fc\uac00\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc785\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uac70\ub098, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \ub9cc\uc871\ud560 \ub54c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\ub958 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2.2 \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud65c\uc6a9<\/h3>\n
\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub354 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130(\uc608: \ub274\uc2a4 \uae30\uc0ac, \uc18c\uc15c \ubbf8\ub514\uc5b4 \ub370\uc774\ud130)\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\uace0, \uc5ec\ub7ec \uce35\uc758 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc21c\ud658 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd(RNN)\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucc98\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud558\uc5ec, \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \ub9ce\uc774 \ud65c\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

3. ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uae30<\/h2>\n

ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub110\ub9ac \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. ARIMA\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c\uc758 \uc870\ud569\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

AR (Autoregressive): \ud604\uc7ac \uac12\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 \uac12\uc758 \uc120\ud615 \uc870\ud569\uc778 \uacbd\uc6b0.<\/li>\n
I (Integrated): \ucc28\ubd84\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ube44\uc815\uc0c1\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0.<\/li>\n

MA (Moving Average): \ud604\uc7ac \uac12\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 \uc624\ucc28\uc758 \uc120\ud615 \uc870\ud569\uc778 \uacbd\uc6b0.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

3.1 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \uae30\ucd08<\/h3>\n

ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 Y<\/code>\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud615\ud0dc\ub97c \uac00\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

Y(t) = c + \u03c61*Y(t-1) + \u03c62*Y(t-2) + ... + \u03c6p*Y(t-p) + \u03b81*\u03b5(t-1) + \u03b82*\u03b5(t-2) + ... + \u03b8q*\u03b5(t-q) + \u03b5(t)<\/code><\/pre>\n\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c:<\/p>\n
\nc<\/code>: \uc0c1\uc218 (Intercept)<\/li>\n
\u03c6<\/code>: AR \uacc4\uc218 (p\ucc28 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4)<\/li>\n
\u03b8<\/code>: MA \uacc4\uc218 (q\ucc28 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4)<\/li>\n
\u03b5<\/code>: \uc624\ucc28\ud56d (White Noise)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n3.2 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95 \ub2e8\uacc4<\/h3>\nARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n
\n\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1 \ubc0f \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac:<\/strong> \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc218\uc9d1\ud558\uace0, \uacb0\uce21\uce58 \ucc98\ub9ac \ubc0f \uc774\uc0c1\uce58 \uc81c\uac70 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac \uc791\uc5c5\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc815\uc0c1\uc131 \uac80\uc815:<\/strong> \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc815\uc0c1\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. ADF( Augmented Dickey-Fuller) \uac80\uc815\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\ucd5c\uc801\uc758 p, d, q \uc120\ud0dd:<\/strong> ACF(Autocorrelation Function)\uc640 PACF(Partial Autocorrelation Function)\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec AR(Autoregressive) \ucc28\uc218(p)\uc640 MA(Moving Average) \ucc28\uc218(q)\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\ubaa8\ub378 \uc801\ud569:<\/strong> \uc120\ud0dd\ud55c p, d, q \uac12\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc608\uce21:<\/strong> \ud559\uc2b5\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \uac12\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n4. ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95 \uc608\uc81c<\/h2>\n\uc2e4\uc81c ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 Python \uc5b8\uc5b4\uc640 Pandas, Statsmodels \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uc81c\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\ub4dc\ub9ac\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1 \ubc0f \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\nimport pandas as pd\nimport numpy as np\n\n# \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub85c\ub4dc\ndata = pd.read_csv('stock_prices.csv')\ndata['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(data['Date'])\ndata.set_index('Date', inplace=True)\ndata = data['Close'].dropna()<\/code><\/pre>\n\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 ‘stock_prices.csv’ \ud30c\uc77c\uc5d0 \uc800\uc7a5\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud558\uace0, \uc8fc\uac00 \uc815\ubcf4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0a0\uc9dc\ub97c \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\ub85c \uc138\ud305\ud558\uc5ec \ud074\ub85c\uc9d5 \uac00\uaca9\ub9cc \ucd94\ucd9c\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.2 \uc815\uc0c1\uc131 \uac80\uc815<\/h3>\nfrom statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller\n\nresult = adfuller(data)\nprint('ADF Statistic: %f' % result[0])\nprint('p-value: %f' % result[1])<\/code><\/pre>\nADF \uac80\uc815 \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 p-value\uac00 0.05 \uc774\ud558\ub77c\uba74, \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc815\uc0c1\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.3 \ucd5c\uc801\uc758 p, d, q \uc120\ud0dd<\/h3>\nfrom statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# ACF \ubc0f PACF \ud50c\ub86f\nplot_acf(data)\nplot_pacf(data)\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\nACF\uc640 PACF \ud50c\ub86f\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec p\uc640 q \uac12\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.4 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378 \uc801\ud569 \ubc0f \uc608\uce21<\/h3>\nfrom statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n\n# ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378 \uc801\ud569\nmodel = ARIMA(data, order=(p, d, q))\nmodel_fit = model.fit()\n\n# \uc608\uce21\nforecast = model_fit.forecast(steps=5)\nprint(forecast)<\/code><\/pre>\n\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc801\ud569\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0, \ud5a5\ud6c4 5\uc77c\uac04 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5. ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4\uc640 \ud655\uc7a5 \uae30\ubc95<\/h2>\nARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \uc608\uce21 \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ube44\uc815\uc0c1\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc801\ud569\ud55c d \uac12\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud798\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \uc798 \ucea1\ucc98\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.1 SARIMA \ubaa8\ub378<\/h3>\nSARIMA(Seasonal ARIMA)\ub294 \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. SARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 ARIMA\uc758 \ud655\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c, \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc5ec p, d, q \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc2a4\ud399\ud2b8\ub7fc \uacc4\uc218(P, D, Q)\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.2 \ube44\uc120\ud615 \ubaa8\ub378<\/h3>\nARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ube44\uc120\ud615 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc798 \ud45c\ud604\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) \ubaa8\ub378\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ube44\uc120\ud615 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc774\ubd84\uc0b0\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\ub294 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc720\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.3 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ud1b5\ud569<\/h3>\n\ucd5c\uadfc \uc5f0\uad6c\ub4e4\uc740 ARIMA\uc640 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc95\uc744 \ud1b5\ud569\ud55c \ud558\uc774\ube0c\ub9ac\ub4dc \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc81c\uc548\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc785\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
6. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n\uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc558\uc73c\uba70, ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uace0 \ud655\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0c1\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uac04\ub2e8\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \uc608\uce21 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c, \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud655\uc7a5 \uae30\ubc95\uacfc \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d\uacfc \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574\ub97c \ub192\uc774\uace0, \uc2e4\uc81c \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\ucd08 \uc9c0\uc2dd\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc774 \uae00\uc774 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\uc81c \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc740 ARIMA \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uace0 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uac16\ucd94\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uac1c\uc120\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud574 \ubcf4\uc2dc\uae30 \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
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