\ucd9c\ub825 \uce35 (Output Layer)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n2. \uc21c\ud658 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd( RNN )\uc758 \uac1c\ub150<\/h2>\n
RNN(\uc21c\ud658 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd)\uc740 \uc2dc\ud000\uc2a4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc2dc\uac04\uc801 \uc758\uc874\uc131\uc744 \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc740 \uc785\ub825\uacfc \ucd9c\ub825\uc744 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, RNN\uc740 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \ucd9c\ub825\uc744 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc785\ub825\uc5d0 \ud53c\ub4dc\ubc31\ud558\uc5ec \uc0c1\ud0dc(state)\ub97c \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 RNN\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ubc1c\ud718\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2.1 RNN\uc758 \uc791\ub3d9 \uc6d0\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
RNN\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uad6c\uc870\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc21c\ud658 \uace0\ub9ac\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc785\ub825 \ubca1\ud130 ‘x’\uc640 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uc740\ub2c9 \uc0c1\ud0dc ‘h’\uac00 \uacb0\ud569\ub418\uc5b4 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc740\ub2c9 \uc0c1\ud0dc ‘h’\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uc218\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\ud604\ud558\uba74:<\/p>\n
h(t) = f(W * x(t) + U * h(t-1) + b)<\/p>\n
\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c ‘f’\ub294 \ube44\uc120\ud615 \ud65c\uc131\ud654 \ud568\uc218, ‘W’\uc640 ‘U’\ub294 \uac00\uc911\uce58 \ud589\ub82c, ‘b’\ub294 \ubc14\uc774\uc5b4\uc2a4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uad6c\uc870\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2.2 RNN\uc758 \uc7a5\ub2e8\uc810<\/h3>\n
\uc7a5\uc810:<\/strong> RNN\uc740 \uc2dc\uac04\uc801 \uc758\uc874\uc131\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\ub2e8\uc810:<\/strong> \ud559\uc2b5 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc6b8\uae30 \uc18c\uc2e4(vanishing gradient) \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc774 \uae4a\uc5b4\uc9d0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc774\uc804 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc783\uc5b4\ubc84\ub9ac\uace0, \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uae34 \uc2dc\ud000\uc2a4\ub97c \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\ub294 \ubb38\uc81c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n3. RNN\uc758 \ubcc0\ud615\ub4e4<\/h2>\n
RNN\uc758 \uae30\ucd08 \uad6c\uc870\ub294 \uc720\uc6a9\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc57d\uc810\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud574\uacb0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ubcc0\ud615\ub4e4\uc774 \uac1c\ubc1c\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc911 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\uba85\ud55c \uac83\uc740 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)\uacfc GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
3.1 LSTM<\/h3>\n
LSTM\uc740 RNN\uc758 \uae30\uc6b8\uae30 \uc18c\uc2e4 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ud574\uacb0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uace0\uc548\ub41c \uad6c\uc870\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. LSTM\uc740 \uc785\ub825 \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8, \uc0ad\uc81c \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8, \ucd9c\ub825 \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8\uc758 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc694 \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc5ec \uc815\ubcf4\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc81c\uc5b4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 LSTM\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc758\uc874\uc131(long-term dependencies)\uc744 \uc798 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc2dc\ud000\uc2a4\uc5d0\uc11c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
3.2 GRU<\/h3>\n
GRU\ub294 LSTM\uc758 \uac04\uc18c\ud654\ub41c \ubc84\uc804\uc73c\ub85c, \ub354 \uc801\uc740 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. GRU\ub294 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8 \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8\uc640 \ub9ac\uc14b \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8\uc758 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uac8c\uc774\ud2b8\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc81c\uc5b4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4. RNN\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529<\/h2>\n
RNN \ubc0f \uadf8 \ubcc0\ud615\uc778 LSTM\uacfc GRU\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21, \uac70\ub798 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131 \ubc0f \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uc139\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 RNN\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \uad6c\ud604 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\ud0a4\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub300\ub7c9\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \uac70\uce69\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n
\n- \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1: Yahoo Finance, Quandl \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucd9c\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uac00\uc838\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
- \uacb0\uce21\uce58 \ucc98\ub9ac: \uacb0\uce21 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc801\uc808\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
- \uc815\uaddc\ud654: \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \ub9de\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc815\uaddc\ud654(Normalization) \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
- \ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4\ud15d \uc0dd\uc131: RNN\uc740 \uc2dc\ud000\uc2a4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc785\ub825\ubc1b\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \ud559\uc2b5\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uc801\uc808\ud55c \ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4\ud15d(long) \uae38\uc774\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.2 \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95 \ubc0f \ud559\uc2b5<\/h3>\n
Python\uc758 Keras \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec RNN \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uace0 \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 RNN \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95\uc758 \uc608\uc2dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n
\nimport numpy as np\nimport pandas as pd\nfrom keras.models import Sequential\nfrom keras.layers import LSTM, Dense\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \uc0dd\uc131\nmodel = Sequential()\nmodel.add(LSTM(50, return_sequences=True, input_shape=(timesteps, features)))\nmodel.add(LSTM(50))\nmodel.add(Dense(1))\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ucef4\ud30c\uc77c\nmodel.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mean_squared_error')\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ud559\uc2b5\nmodel.fit(X_train, y_train, epochs=100, batch_size=32)\n <\/code><\/pre>\n4.3 \uc608\uce21 \ubc0f \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131<\/h3>\n
\ud559\uc2b5\ub41c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub9e4\uc218 \uc2e0\ud638(Buy signal) \ub610\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ud638(Sell signal)\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud558\uc5ec \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.4 \ubaa8\ub378 \ud3c9\uac00 \ubc0f \ucd5c\uc801\ud654<\/h3>\n
\ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error), MAE(Mean Absolute Error)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, \uad50\ucc28 \uac80\uc99d\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uacfc\uc801\ud569(overfitting)\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc77c\ubc18\ud654 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ucf1c\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5. RNN \uae30\ubc18 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc0ac\ub840<\/h2>\n
\uc2e4\uc81c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c RNN \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.1 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uce21<\/h3>\n
\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b9\uc815 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 RNN\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub9ce\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc560\ud50c(Apple) \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c LSTM \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\ucf1c \ubbf8\ub798 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0, \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.2 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uac70\ub798<\/h3>\n
\uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 RNN\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud65c\uc131\ud654 \ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc774\ub098 \uc774\ub354\ub9ac\uc6c0\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uac00 \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub3c4\ub85d \ub3d5\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc774 \ub9ce\uc774 \uac1c\ubc1c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 RNN\uc758 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \uc608\uce21 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub2e8\uae30 \ub9e4\ub9e4\uc640 \uc7a5\uae30 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.3 \uace0\ube48\ub3c4 \uac70\ub798(HFT)<\/h3>\n
\uace0\ube48\ub3c4 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. RNN \uad6c\uc870\uc758 \ubcc0\ud615\uc778 GRU\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ubaa8\ub378\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2ec\uce35 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uacfc \uacb0\ud569\ub418\uc5b4 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uac70\ub798 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
6. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd, \ud2b9\ud788 RNN\uc758 \uac1c\ub150\uacfc \uc791\ub3d9 \uc6d0\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. RNN\uc740 \uc2dc\ud000\uc2a4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ucc98\ub9ac \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uac16\ucd94\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d\uacfc \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 RNN \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac1c\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud000\ud2b8 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529(Algorithmic Trading)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc640 \ubc1c\uc804\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub098\uc740 \ud22c\uc790 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\uc2dc\uae30 \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
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\ubcf8 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc774 \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d \ubc0f \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc801 \uac70\ub798(\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529)\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae4a\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc774\ud574\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc21c\ud658 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd(RNN)\uc758 \uc791\ub3d9 \uc6d0\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 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