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<\/p>\n

\ube14\ub799\ubc15\uc2a4\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80: GBM \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95<\/h2>\n
\ud604\uc7ac \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub0a0\ub85c \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc774 \uacb0\ud569\ub41c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\uc218\uc640 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc778 Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uba70, \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\uace0, \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

1. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc774\ub780?<\/h2>\n

\uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae30\uc220\uc740 \ucd08 \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c \uc218\ucc9c \uac1c\uc758 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud798\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc778\uac04 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uac00 \ub2ec\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub192\uc740 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc744 \uc790\ub791\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc774\uc810\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

\uc815\ud655\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d: \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uac70\ub798 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uac10\uc815 \ubc30\uc81c: \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc740 \uac10\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\uc758\ub41c \uaddc\uce59\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n

\uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uc2e4\ud589: \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc740 \uc778\uac04\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2e4\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

2. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \uad00\uacc4<\/h2>\n
\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \ud559\uc2b5\uacfc \ud328\ud134 \uc778\uc2dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud558\uc704 \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \uc778\uacf5\uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub354 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ud574\uacb0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc8fc\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ud2b9\ud788 \ube44\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub370\uc774\ud130(\uc608: \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0, \ud14d\uc2a4\ud2b8)\uc5d0 \uac15\uc744 \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

3. Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) \uc18c\uac1c<\/h2>\n

Gradient Boosting Machine(GBM)\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c, \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac1c\uc758 \uacb0\uc815 \ud2b8\ub9ac\ub97c \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \ub354 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. GBM\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

\uacfc\uc789 \uc801\ud569 \ubc29\uc9c0: GBM\uc740 \ubd80\uc2a4\ud305\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ub97c \uac1c\uc120\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc720\uc5f0\uc131: \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc190\uc2e4 \ud568\uc218\ub97c \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud558\uc5ec \ud68c\uadc0\uc640 \ubd84\ub958 \ubb38\uc81c \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9 \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n

\ub192\uc740 \uc131\ub2a5: \ub9ce\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc14b\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\ub978 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

4. GBM \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc758 \uc791\ub3d9 \uc6d0\ub9ac<\/h2>\n

GBM\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc74c\uc758 \uacfc\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

\uae30\ubcf8 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc0dd\uc131: \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378 (\uc608: \uacb0\uc815 \ud2b8\ub9ac)\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc794\uc5ec \uc624\ucc28 \uacc4\uc0b0: \uc608\uce21\ub41c \uac12\uacfc \uc2e4\uc81c \uac12 \uac04\uc758 \uc794\uc5ec \uc624\ucc28\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\ubaa8\ub378 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8: \uc794\uc5ec \uc624\ucc28\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n

\ubc18\ubcf5: 2-3 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub97c \uc6d0\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc218\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\ubcf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

5. GBM \uacb0\uacfc \ud574\uc11d\ud558\uae30<\/h2>\n
GBM\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc778 \uacb0\uacfc \ud574\uc11d\uc740 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc131\ud328\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\uc9d3\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc694\uc18c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 GBM \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

5.1 \uc911\uc694 \ubcc0\uc218(Feature Importance) \ubd84\uc11d<\/h3>\n

GBM\uc740 \uac01 \ubcc0\uc218\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ub3c4\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uc5ec \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294\uc9c0 \uc774\ud574\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uc694 \ubcc0\uc218 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

\nimport pandas as pd\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nfrom sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier\n\n# \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub85c\ub4dc\ndata = pd.read_csv('financial_data.csv')\nX = data.drop('target', axis=1)\ny = data['target']\n\n# GBM \ubaa8\ub378 \ud6c8\ub828\nmodel = GradientBoostingClassifier()\nmodel.fit(X, y)\n\n# \uc911\uc694 \ubcc0\uc218 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\nimportances = model.feature_importances_\nindices = np.argsort(importances)[::-1]\n\n# \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \uc791\uc131\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))\nplt.title('Feature Importances')\nplt.bar(range(X.shape[1]), importances[indices], align='center')\nplt.xticks(range(X.shape[1]), X.columns[indices], rotation=90)\nplt.xlim([-1, X.shape[1]])\nplt.show()\n<\/pre>\n5.2 \uc794\ucc28 \ubd84\uc11d(Residual Analysis)<\/h3>\n\uc794\ucc28 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc801\ud569 \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21\uac12\uacfc \uc2e4\uc81c\uac12 \uac04\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud558\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc801\ud569\ud55c\uc9c0\ub97c \ud310\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\uc815\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc774 \ubc1c\uacac\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uac00\uc815\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\n# \uc794\ucc28 \uacc4\uc0b0\npredictions = model.predict(X)\nresiduals = y - predictions\n\n# \uc794\ucc28 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))\nplt.scatter(predictions, residuals)\nplt.axhline(y=0, color='r', linestyle='-')\nplt.title('Residuals vs Fitted')\nplt.xlabel('Fitted Values')\nplt.ylabel('Residuals')\nplt.show()\n<\/pre>\n5.3 \uc2e0\ub8b0 \uad6c\uac04(CI) \uc608\uce21<\/h3>\nGBM \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc608\uce21\ud55c \uac12\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc2e0\ub8b0 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e0\ub8b0 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \uc2e0\ub8b0 \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc758 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
6. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\nGBM\uc740 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc774\ud574\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \ud22c\uc790 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc740 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \ucd1d\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ubc1c\uc804\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\uc5b4 \ub098\uac08 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc774 \uacb0\ud569\ub418\uba74, \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\ub8ec \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c, \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc740 GBM\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \uc5bb\uac8c \ub418\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ubc0f \ud574\uc11d \uae30\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
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\ube14\ub799\ubc15\uc2a4\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80: GBM \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95 \ud604\uc7ac \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub0a0\ub85c \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc774 \uacb0\ud569\ub41c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\uc218\uc640 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc778 Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uba70, \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\uace0, \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ube14\ub799\ubc15\uc2a4\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80  GBM \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ube14\ub799\ubc15\uc2a4\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 GBM \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95 - 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