\uc790\uc720\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud655\uc7a5\uc131: \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790 \uc815\uc758 \ud568\uc218\uc640 \ubaa8\ub378 \ub514\uc790\uc778 \uac00\ub2a5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n4. \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uac1c\ub150<\/h2>\n
\ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc0ac\uc804 \uc815\ubcf4(prior knowledge)\ub97c \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \ud655\ub960\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8f0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.1 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ucd94\ub860\uc758 \uae30\ubc18<\/h3>\n
\ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ucd94\ub860\uc740 \ubca0\uc774\uc988 \uc815\ub9ac\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec, \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n
Posterior \u221d Likelihood \u00d7 Prior<\/pre>\n\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c Posterior\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud55c \ud6c4\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4, Likelihood\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc84c\uc744 \ub54c \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0bc \ud655\ub960, Prior\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\uc5d0 \uac00\uc9c4 \uc0ac\uc804 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5. \ud14c\uc544\ub178\uc640 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud1b5\ud569<\/h2>\n
\ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc608\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4, Bayesian linear regression\uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8e8\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
5.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1<\/h3>\n
\uc8fc\uc2dd \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 Yahoo Finance API\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc678\ubd80 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc218\uc9d1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Pandas\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub370\uc774\ud130\ud504\ub808\uc784\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud658\ud558\uace0, \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ubcc0\uc218\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\nimport pandas as pd\ndata = pd.read_csv('stocks.csv')\n<\/pre>\n5.2 \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95<\/h3>\n
\ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\uace0, \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc815\uc758\ud55c \ud6c4, \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\uac1c\ubcc0\uc218 \ucd5c\uc801\ud654\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \ub098\ub269\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\ub798\ub294 \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub85c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uc2dc \ucf54\ub4dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\nimport theano\nimport theano.tensor as T\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130 \uc815\uc758\nalpha = theano.shared(0.0)\nbeta = theano.shared(0.0)\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \uc815\uc758\ndef bayesian_regression(X):\n return alpha + beta * X\n\n# \uc190\uc2e4 \ud568\uc218 \uc815\uc758\ndef loss_function(y_true, y_pred):\n return T.mean(T.sqr(y_pred - y_true))\n\n# \ub370\uc774\ud0c0\uc640 \ud6c8\ub828 \ud568\uc218 \uc815\uc758\n# ...\n<\/pre>\n5.3 \ubaa8\ub378 \ud559\uc2b5 \ubc0f \ud3c9\uac00<\/h3>\n
\ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud6c8\ub828 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc14b\uc744 \uc785\ub825\ud558\uace0, \uc190\uc2e4 \ud568\uc218\ub97c \ucd5c\uc18c\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\ub97c \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec, \uad50\ucc28 \uac80\uc99d\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5b8\uc81c\ub4e0\uc9c0 Hyperparameter tuning\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ucd5c\uc801\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
6. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc740 \ud000\ud2b8\ub9e4\ub9e4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc218\uc6a9\ud558\uace0, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc778 \uac70\ub798 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ud000\ud2b8\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc5d0 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uae30\ubc95\ub4e4\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\uae08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd, \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \uae30\ucd08\uc640 \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc8fc\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub354 \uae4a\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc640 \uc2e4\uc2b5\uc740 \ud000\ud2b8\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud070 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
<\/body><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ud000\ud2b8\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d\uacfc \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\ub300\uc758 \ud000\ud2b8\ub9e4\ub9e4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\uc774 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ud3ec\uc2a4\ud305\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\uc778 \ud14c\uc544\ub178(Theano)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc744 \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc2ec\uce35\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uc5b4 \ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uac1c\uc694 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud558\uc704 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud14c\uc544\ub178\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd - 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