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\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc774 \ub300\ub450\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\ub4e4\uc774 \uadf8 \uc911\uc2ec\uc5d0 \uc790\ub9ac\uc7a1\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \ub2e4\ubcc0\ub7c9 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\uc218 \uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec, \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\u2026","rel":"","context":""\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529"\uc5d0\uc11c","block_context":{"text":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 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\uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \ubc29\ub300\ud55c \uc591\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uace0 \uc815\ud655\ud558\uac8c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec \ucd5c\uc801\uc758 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uac1c\ub150\uacfc \uc6d0\ub9ac,\u2026","rel":"","context":""\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529"\uc5d0\uc11c","block_context":{"text":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 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\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd(Deep Learning) \uae30\uc220\uc774 \uc811\ubaa9\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ubc95\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc2ec\ub3c4 \uae4a\uc740 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8e8\uc5b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc774\ud574 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740\u2026","rel":"","context":""\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529"\uc5d0\uc11c","block_context":{"text":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529","link":"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/category\/%eb%94%a5%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d-%eb%a8%b8%ec%8b%a0%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d-%ec%9e%90%eb%8f%99-%ed%8a%b8%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%94%a9\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29369,"url":"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/29369\/","url_meta":{"origin":29451,"position":5},"title":"\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud150\uc11c\ubcf4\ub4dc\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud574 \uc784\ubca0\ub529 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654","author":"root","date":"2024\ub144 10\uc6d4 27\uc77c","format":false,"excerpt":"2023\ub144 X\uc6d4 X\uc77c | \uc791\uc131\uc790: \uc870\uad11\ud615 \uc11c\ub860 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc790\ub3d9\ud654\ub41c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uadf8 \uc758\ubbf8\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\uc870\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uc591\uacfc \ubcf5\uc7a1\uc131\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5bb\uae30 \ud798\ub4e0 \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\uacc4\ud559\uc2b5 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc774 \ub300\ub450\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uace0,\u2026","rel":"","context":""\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529"\uc5d0\uc11c","block_context":{"text":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc790\ub3d9 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<\/p>\n

1. \uc11c\ub860<\/h2>\n
\n \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc8fc\ubaa9\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc774 \ubc1c\uc804\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc815\ub7c9\uc801(trading quant) \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc911 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc778 \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

2. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc774\ud574<\/h2>\n
\n \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud2b9\uc815\ud55c \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ucda9\uc871\ub420 \ub54c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \ub9d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc774 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ub370 \ud070 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

3. \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150<\/h2>\n
\n \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc544\ube44\ud2b8\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc77c\uc885\uc73c\ub85c, \ub450 \uac1c\uc758 \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud558\uc5ec \ud55c \uc790\uc0b0\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \ubc18\ub300 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ube44\ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ucd5c\uc18c\ud654\ud558\uba70 \uc548\uc815\ub41c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

3.1. \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \ub2e8\uacc4<\/h3>\n

\n \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud0dd: \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ub450 \uac1c\uc758 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uacc4\uc0b0: \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uc5ec \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1: \ud559\uc2b5 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uacfc \ud45c\uc900\ud3b8\ucc28\ub97c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131: \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 \uacfc\uac70 \ud3c9\uade0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0a0 \ub54c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n

\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uad00\ub9ac: \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \uc774\uc775 \uc2e4\ud604 \ub610\ub294 \uc190\uc808\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

4. \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h2>\n
\n \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud2b9\uc131\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc740 \uc0ac\uc804 \ud655\ub960(prior)\uacfc \uc6b0\ub3c4(likelihood)\ub97c \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \uc0ac\ud6c4 \ud655\ub960(posterior)\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uc2dc\uac04\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ucea1\ucc98\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc801\ud569\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

4.1. \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150<\/h3>\n

\n \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc694\uc18c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4:\n <\/p>\n

\uc0ac\uc804 \ubd84\ud3ec(Prior Distribution):<\/strong> \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\uc804 \uc815\ubcf4 \ub610\ub294 \ubbff\uc74c\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n
\uc6b0\ub3c4(Likelihood):<\/strong> \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ud2b9\uc815 \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n

\uc0ac\ud6c4 \ubd84\ud3ec(Posterior Distribution):<\/strong> \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc0ac\uc804 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc758 \uc870\uac74\ubd80 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.2. \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0\uc758 \uc7a5\uc810\uacfc \uc751\uc6a9<\/h3>\n
\n \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc815\ub7c9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc801\uac70\ub098 \ub178\uc774\uc988\uac00 \ub9ce\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ubcf5\uc7a1\uc131\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \uacfc\uc801\ud569(overfitting)\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
4.3. \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h3>\n
\n \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0\ub294 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\uace0, \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub2e4\uc74c \uae30\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uba70 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ubc18\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae30\ubc95\uc740 \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ube44\uc2dc\uac04\uc801 \ud2b9\uc131\uc744 \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc801\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
5. \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d \uad6c\ud604<\/h2>\n
\n \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud30c\uc774\uc36c\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c\ub294 pandas<\/code>, numpy<\/code>, pystan<\/code> \ub4f1\uc758 \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
5.1. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1<\/h3>\n\n \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 Yahoo Finance, Alpha Vantage, Quandl \ub4f1\uc758 API\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc218\uc9d1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ub450 \uac1c\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd(\uc608: AAPL, MSFT)\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc218\uc9d1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n \nimport pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf\n\n# \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1\nsymbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT']\ndata = yf.download(symbols, start=\"2015-01-01\", end=\"2023-01-01\")\ndata = data['Adj Close']\n <\/code><\/pre>\n5.2. \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uacc4\uc0b0<\/h3>\n\n \ub450 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\uba70, \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n \n# \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uacc4\uc0b0\nspread = data['AAPL'] - data['MSFT']\n <\/code><\/pre>\n5.3. \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h3>\n\n \uc774\uc81c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud560 \ucc28\ub840\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c pystan<\/code> \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud558\uace0, \uac01 \ub864\ub9c1 \uc708\ub3c4\uc6b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n \nimport pystan\n\n# \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc815\uc758\nmodel_code = \"\"\"\ndata {\n int N;\n vector[N] x;\n vector[N] y;\n}\nparameters {\n real alpha;\n real beta;\n real sigma;\n}\nmodel {\n y ~ normal(alpha + beta * x, sigma);\n}\n\"\"\"\ndata_stan = {'N': len(spread), 'x': data['MSFT'], 'y': spread.values}\nstan_model = pystan.StanModel(model_code=model_code)\n\n# \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d \uc218\ud589\nresults = []\nwindow_size = 60 # 60\uc77c \ub864\ub9c1 \uc708\ub3c4\uc6b0\nfor i in range(len(spread) - window_size):\n window_data = data_stan.copy()\n window_data['N'] = window_size\n window_data['x'] = data['MSFT'].iloc[i:i+window_size].values\n window_data['y'] = spread.iloc[i:i+window_size].values\n fit = stan_model.sampling(data=window_data)\n results.append(fit)\n <\/lower=0><\/lower=0><\/code><\/pre>\n6. \uacb0\uacfc \ubd84\uc11d \ubc0f \ud574\uc11d<\/h2>\n\n \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\ub97c \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uacfc \ud45c\uc900\ud3b8\ucc28\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc740 \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n \nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\nbetas = [fit['beta'].mean() for fit in results]\nplt.plot(betas)\nplt.title('Rolling Beta Coefficients')\nplt.xlabel('Rolling Window')\nplt.ylabel('Beta')\nplt.show()\n <\/code><\/pre>\n7. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n\n \ubcf8 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc77c\ud658\uc73c\ub85c \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud2b9\uc131\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. PEAR Trading \ubc0f Bayesian Rolling Regression\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc778 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud574\ubcf4\uc2dc\uae30 \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n \ucc38\uace0 \uc790\ub8cc<\/h2>\n\n\ubc15\uc9c0\ud638. (2022). \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d<\/em>. \uacbd\uc81c\uacbd\uc601\uc5f0\uad6c\uc6d0.<\/li>\n \uc774\uc900\ubc94. (2021). \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529<\/em>. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc800\ub110.<\/li>\n Yfinance Documentation. (n.d.). Retrieved from https:\/\/pypi.org\/project\/yfinance\/<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/body><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"1. \uc11c\ub860 \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc8fc\ubaa9\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\uc220\uc774 \ubc1c\uc804\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc815\ub7c9\uc801(trading quant) \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\uad50\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc911 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc778 \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uc774\ud574 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d - \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/29451\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ub864\ub9c1 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubd84\uc11d - \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"1. \uc11c\ub860 \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc8fc\ubaa9\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc 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