\n \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc815\ubcf4 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud000\ud2b8(Quantitative) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ucc3e\uc544\ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uacc4 \ud559\uc2b5(\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd) \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574\uc640 \uc774\ub97c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc911\uc810\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubd80\ub4dc\ub7fd\uac8c \ud558\uace0, \uadf8 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \uc2dc\uac01\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd, \uc678\ud658 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uae08\uc735 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub110\ub9ac \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\uba70, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc785\ub825\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \ub54c \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc608\uce21\ub825\uc744 \ubc1c\ud718\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
2. \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150<\/h2>\n2.1 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc758 \uc815\uc758<\/h3>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0(Moving Average, MA)\uc740 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uc5ec \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0, \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\ub85c \ub2e8\uc21c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0(SMA)\uacfc \uc9c0\uc218 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0(EMA) \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud615\ud0dc\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
2.2 \ub2e8\uc21c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0(SMA)<\/h3>\n
\n \ub2e8\uc21c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \ud615\ud0dc\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc73c\ub85c, \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub0b4\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub2e8\uc21c \ud3c9\uade0\ud558\uc5ec \uacc4\uc0b0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, 5\uc77c \uac04\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 10, 12, 14, 16, 18\uc774\ub77c\uba74, 5\uc77c SMA\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uacc4\uc0b0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4:\n <\/p>\n
\n SMA = (10 + 12 + 14 + 16 + 18) \/ 5 = 14\n <\/pre>\n2.3 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0(EMA)<\/h3>\n
\n \uc9c0\uc218 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uac00\uc911\uce58\ub97c \ubd80\uc5ec\ud558\uc5ec \uacc4\uc0b0\ub41c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub354 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ud30c\uc545\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc720\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. EMA\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uacc4\uc0b0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4:\n <\/p>\n
\n EMA(t) = ( \uac00\uaca9(t) * (1 - \u03b1) ) + ( EMA(t-1) * \u03b1 )\n <\/pre>\n\n \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \u03b1\ub294 \uac00\uc911\uce58 \uacc4\uc218\ub85c, \uc8fc\ub85c \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ub41c \uac12\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
3. \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc758 \ud65c\uc6a9<\/h2>\n3.1 \uac70\ub798 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131<\/h3>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \uac70\ub798 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub110\ub9ac \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uacfc \uc7a5\uae30 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \ube44\uad50\ud558\uc5ec \uad50\ucc28\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubc1c\uc0dd\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, 50\uc77c SMA\uac00 200\uc77c SMA\ub97c \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc704\ub85c \uad50\ucc28\ud560 \ub54c \ub9e4\uc218 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c, \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc544\ub798\ub85c \uad50\ucc28\ud560 \ub54c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
3.2 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ucd5c\uc18c\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uccad\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
4. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0<\/h2>\n4.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\n \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud6c8\ub828\uc2dc\ud0a4\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac\uac00 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \ud6c8\ub828 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc14b\uc5d0\uc11c \ub178\uc774\uc988\ub97c \uc904\uc5ec\uc8fc\uace0, \ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
4.2 \ud2b9\uc9d5 \ucd94\ucd9c<\/h3>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 \uac12\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud2b9\uc9d5(features)\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 \uac12\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc785\ub825 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
\n import pandas as pd\n\n # \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub85c\ub4dc\n stock_data = pd.read_csv('stock_prices.csv')\n # 50\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 \ucd94\uac00\n stock_data['50_MA'] = stock_data['Close'].rolling(window=50).mean()\n <\/pre>\n<\/div>\n\n
5. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0<\/h2>\n5.1 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\n \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uc785\ub825 \ud45c\uc900\ud654\ub97c \uc774\ub8e8\uba74, LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc21c\ud658 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd(RNN) \uc544\ud0a4\ud14d\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\uc5b4\ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
5.2 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1<\/h3>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc8fc\uac00 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub610\ub294 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0, \uc2e4\uc81c \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, LSTM \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\ub41c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
\n from keras.models import Sequential\n from keras.layers import LSTM, Dense\n\n # LSTM \ubaa8\ub378 \uc815\uc758\n model = Sequential()\n model.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True, input_shape=(timesteps, features)))\n model.add(LSTM(units=50))\n model.add(Dense(1))\n model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mean_squared_error')\n <\/pre>\n<\/div>\n\n
6. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\n \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uae30\ubcf8 \ub3c4\uad6c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud65c\uc6a9\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac \ubc0f \ud2b9\uc9d5 \ucd94\ucd9c \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc801\uc6a9\uc740 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc720\ud615\uacfc \uc774\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc \ubd84\uc11d \uae30\ubc95\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c \ub2e8\uacc4 \ub354 \ub098\uc544\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n
\n \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uac1c\ub150\ubd80\ud130 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc5d0\uc758 \uc801\uc6a9\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354\uc6b1 \ubc1c\uc804\ub41c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \uae30\ubc95\uc744 \uc9d1\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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1. \uc11c\ub860 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc815\ubcf4 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud000\ud2b8(Quantitative) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ucc3e\uc544\ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uacc4 \ud559\uc2b5(\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd) \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574\uc640 \uc774\ub97c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc911\uc810\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubd80\ub4dc\ub7fd\uac8c \ud558\uace0, \uadf8 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud575\uc2ec \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud575\uc2ec \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c \uc774\ub3d9 \ud3c9\uade0 - 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