{"id":29489,"date":"2024-10-27T16:18:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-27T16:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/?p=29489"},"modified":"2024-11-26T06:52:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T06:52:27","slug":"%eb%a8%b8%ec%8b%a0%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d-%eb%b0%8f-%eb%94%a5%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d-%ec%95%8c%ea%b3%a0%eb%a6%ac%ec%a6%98-%ed%8a%b8%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%94%a9-%ed%99%95%eb%a5%a0-%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%84%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/29489\/","title":{"rendered":"\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

1. \uc11c\ub860<\/h2>\n

\n \ud604\ub300 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac70\ub300\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud64d\uc218 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc77c \ubc29\ub300\ud55c \uc591\uc758 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294
\n \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uac1c\ubc1c \ubc0f \ucd5c\uc801\ud654\uc5d0 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744
\n \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uae30\ucd08\ubd80\ud130 \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2ec\uce35\uc801\uc778 \ubd84\uc11d\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub2e4\ub8f0 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

2. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ucd08<\/h2>\n

\n \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uace0 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud55c \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c,
\n \uc778\uacf5 \uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd
\n \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ub4e4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc608\uce21, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac, \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ucd5c\uc801\ud654 \ub4f1\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

2.1 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \uc720\ud615<\/h3>\n

\n \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5, \ube44\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5, \uac15\ud654 \ud559\uc2b5\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ub20c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5\uc740 \ub808\uc774\ube14\uc774 \uc788\ub294
\n \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube44\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud559\uc2b5\uc740 \ub808\uc774\ube14\uc774 \uc5c6\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c
\n \ud074\ub7ec\uc2a4\ud130\ub9c1\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\ud654 \ud559\uc2b5\uc740 \uc5d0\uc774\uc804\ud2b8\uac00 \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \uc0c1\ud638\uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba70
\n \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc744 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ud559\uc2b5 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

3. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uac1c\ub150<\/h2>\n

\n \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uaddc\uce59\uc774\ub098 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574
\n \uc2dc\uac04\uacfc \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc808\uac10\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uac10\uc815\uc758 \uac1c\uc785 \uc5c6\uc774 \uac1d\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc740
\n \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uae08\uc735 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc9c4\uc785 \ubc0f \uccad\uc0b0 \uccb4\uacc4\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

4. \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378<\/h2>\n

\n \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788,
\n \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud22c\uc790\uc758 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc640 \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\n \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud55c \uc608\uc778 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)
\n \ubaa8\ub378\uc740\uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ubcc0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uac00\uc815\ud558\uc5ec \uc8fc\uac00 \ubc0f \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n <\/p>\n

4.1 GARCH \ubaa8\ub378<\/h3>\n

\n GARCH \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc624\ucc28\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc218\uc2dd\uc740
\n \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:\n <\/p>\n

\n        \u03c3\u00b2\u209c = \u03b1\u2080 + \u03a3(\u03b1\u1d62 * \u03b5\u00b2\u209c\u208b\u1d62) + \u03a3(\u03b2\u2c7c * \u03c3\u00b2\u209c\u208b\u2c7c)\n        <\/code><\/pre>\n
\n            \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \u03c3\u00b2\u209c\ub294 t\uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc870\uac74\ubd80 \ubd84\uc0b0(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131), \u03b5\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uc624\ucc28, \u03b1\uc640 \u03b2\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774
\n            \uc218\uc2dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
5. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30<\/h2>\n
\n            \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n
5.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1 \ubc0f \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\n            \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac00\uaca9, \uac70\ub798\ub7c9, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae30\ud0c0 \uad00\ub828 \uc815\ubcf4\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294
\n            \uacb0\uce21\uac12 \ucc98\ub9ac, \uc774\uc0c1\uce58 \uc81c\uac70 \ub4f1 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \uac70\uccd0\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud488\uc9c8\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uace0,
\n            \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud559\uc2b5 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n
5.2 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc120\ud0dd \ubc0f \ud559\uc2b5<\/h3>\n
\n            \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c \uc120\ud615 \ud68c\uadc0, \ub79c\ub364 \ud3ec\ub808\uc2a4\ud2b8, LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) \ub124\ud2b8\uc6cc\ud06c
\n            \ub4f1\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub378 \ud559\uc2b5\uc740 \ud06c\ub85c\uc2a4 \ubc38\ub9ac\ub370\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ubc95\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574
\n            \uc218\ud589\ub418\uba70, \ucd5c\uc801\uc758 \ud558\uc774\ud37c \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130 \uc870\uc815\ub3c4 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n
5.3 \ubaa8\ub378 \ud3c9\uac00 \ubc0f \ucd5c\uc801\ud654<\/h3>\n
\n            \ubaa8\ub378 \ud3c9\uac00 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c RMSE(Root Mean Square Error), MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\n            \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ud53c\ucc98 \uc5d4\uc9c0\ub2c8\uc5b4\ub9c1 \ubc0f \uc559\uc0c1\ube14 \ubc29\ubc95 \ub4f1\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
6. \uac70\ub798 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uac1c\ubc1c<\/h2>\n
\n            \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac1c\ubc1c\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\n            \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uba74 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785 \ubc0f \uccad\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
7. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\n            \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc740 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac \uc7a1\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\n            \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc800\ud56d\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac1c\ubc1c\ud558\uace0, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uccb4\uacc4\ub97c \ub9c8\ub828\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\n            \ud2b9\ud788, \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc131\uacf5 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\uc9d3\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc694\uc778\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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1. \uc11c\ub860 \ud604\ub300 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac70\ub300\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud64d\uc218 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc77c \ubc29\ub300\ud55c \uc591\uc758 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uac1c\ubc1c \ubc0f \ucd5c\uc801\ud654\uc5d0 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc18c\uac00 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\uc758 \uae30\ucd08\ubd80\ud130 \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2ec\uce35\uc801\uc778 \ubd84\uc11d\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub2e4\ub8f0 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ucd08 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uace0 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubc0f \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529, \ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubaa8\ub378 - 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