{"id":31369,"date":"2024-10-28T12:01:34","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T12:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/?p=31369"},"modified":"2024-11-26T06:45:22","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T06:45:22","slug":"%eb%94%a5%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d%ea%b3%bc-%eb%a8%b8%ec%8b%a0%eb%9f%ac%eb%8b%9d%ec%9d%84-%ed%99%9c%ec%9a%a9%ed%95%9c-%ec%9e%90%eb%8f%99%eb%a7%a4%eb%a7%a4-%ea%b0%80%ec%9a%b0%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%88-%ed%94%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/31369\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR) \uae30\ubc18 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0 \uc801\uc6a9."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\uc758 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc95 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc778 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

1. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uac1c\uc694<\/h2>\n

\uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\uc758 \ud55c \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud558\uc704 \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \uc778\uacf5\uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc744 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n

2. \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR)\ub780?<\/h2>\n

\uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR)\ub294 \ube44\ubaa8\uc218 \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ud55c \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc5f0\uc18d\ud615 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. GPR\uc740 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud655\ub960\uc801 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\uc5ec \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \ub0b4\ud3ec\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc608\uce21\uac12\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\ub97c \ucd94\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2.1 GPR\uc758 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \ubc30\uacbd<\/h3>\n

GPR\ub294 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uba70, \uc785\ub825 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \ucd9c\ub825 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uac04\uc758 \ud568\uc218 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ud559\uc2b5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud6c8\ub828 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc14b (X, y)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c, GPR\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uacf5\ubd84\uc0b0 \ud568\uc218\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n

K(X, X') = \u03c3\u00b2 * exp(-||X - X'||\u00b2 \/ (2 * l\u00b2))<\/code><\/pre>\n
\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c, K\ub294 \ucee4\ub110 \ud568\uc218, \u03c3\ub294 \ub178\uc774\uc988\uc758 \ud45c\uc900\ud3b8\ucc28, l\uc740 \uae38\uc774\ucc99\ub3c4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucee4\ub110 \ud568\uc218\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uac04\uc758 \uc720\uc0ac\uc131\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
3. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1<\/h2>\n
\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 Python\uc758 pandas<\/code> \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\uc640 yfinance<\/code> \ubaa8\ub4c8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc218\uc9d1\ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
import pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf\n\n# \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc\nbtc_data = yf.download('BTC-USD', start='2020-01-01', end='2023-01-01')\nbtc_data = btc_data[['Close']]\nbtc_data = btc_data.rename(columns={'Close': 'price'})\nbtc_data = btc_data.reset_index()\nbtc_data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(btc_data['Date'])\nbtc_data.sort_values('Date', inplace=True)\nprint(btc_data.head())<\/code><\/pre>\n
4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h2>\n
\uc218\uc9d1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c GPR \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \uc801\ud569\ud558\uac8c \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \uc2dc\uacc4\uc5f4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub0a0\uc528\uc801 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\uc640 \uacc4\uc808\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
btc_data['returns'] = btc_data['price'].pct_change()\nbtc_data = btc_data.dropna()\n\n# \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \ub9ac\uc14b\nbtc_data.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True)\nprint(btc_data.head())<\/code><\/pre>\n
5. \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0 \ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95<\/h2>\n
\ubaa8\ub378 \uad6c\ucd95\uc744 \uc704\ud574 scikit-learn<\/code> \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac\uc758 GaussianProcessRegressor<\/code> \ud074\ub798\uc2a4\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
from sklearn.gaussian_process import GaussianProcessRegressor\nfrom sklearn.gaussian_process.kernels import RBF, ConstantKernel as C\n\n# \ucee4\ub110 \uc815\uc758\nkernel = C(1.0, (1e-3, 1e3)) * RBF(1.0, (1e-2, 1e2))\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ucd08\uae30\ud654\ngpr = GaussianProcessRegressor(kernel=kernel, n_restarts_optimizer=10)\n\n# \ud6c8\ub828 \ub370\uc774\ud130\nX_train = btc_data.index.values.reshape(-1, 1)\ny_train = btc_data['price'].values\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ud53c\ud305\ngpr.fit(X_train, y_train)<\/code><\/pre>\n
6. \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21<\/h2>\n
\ud6c8\ub828\ub41c GPR \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud574\ubd05\uc2dc\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub0a0\uc9dc\ub97c \uc815\ud558\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
import numpy as np\n\n# \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub0a0\uc9dc \uc218\nn_days = 30\nX_test = np.arange(len(btc_data), len(btc_data) + n_days).reshape(-1, 1)\n\n# \uc608\uce21\ny_pred, sigma = gpr.predict(X_test, return_std=True)\n\n# \uacb0\uacfc \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\nplt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'], btc_data['price'], 'r.', markersize=10, label='Observed Data')\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'].iloc[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(np.arange(1, n_days + 1), unit='D'), y_pred, 'b-', label='Predicted Price')\nplt.fill_between(btc_data['Date'].iloc[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(np.arange(1, n_days + 1), unit='D'),\n                 y_pred - 2 * sigma, y_pred + 2 * sigma, color='gray', alpha=0.2, label='Confidence Interval')\nplt.title('Bitcoin Price Prediction using Gaussian Process Regression')\nplt.xlabel('Date')\nplt.ylabel('Price in USD')\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\n
7. \uc131\ub2a5 \ud3c9\uac00<\/h2>\n
\ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)\uc640 R\u00b2-Score\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score\n\n# RMSE \uacc4\uc0b0\ny_train_pred = gpr.predict(X_train)\nrmse = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_train, y_train_pred))\nr2 = r2_score(y_train, y_train_pred)\n\nprint(f\"RMSE: {rmse:.2f}, R\u00b2 Score: {r2:.2f}\")<\/code><\/pre>\n
8. \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \uad6c\ucd95<\/h2>\n
\ucd5c\uc885\uc801\uc73c\ub85c, \uc608\uce21\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uad6c\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638(\ub9e4\uc218\/\ub9e4\ub3c4)\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub85c\uc9c1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uc2e4\uc81c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc704\ud574 API\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
def generate_signals(predicted_prices):\n    buy_signals = []\n    sell_signals = []\n    for i in range(1, len(predicted_prices)):\n        if predicted_prices[i] > predicted_prices[i - 1]:\n            buy_signals.append(predicted_prices[i])\n            sell_signals.append(np.nan)\n        elif predicted_prices[i] < predicted_prices[i - 1]:\n            sell_signals.append(predicted_prices[i])\n            buy_signals.append(np.nan)\n        else:\n            buy_signals.append(np.nan)\n            sell_signals.append(np.nan)\n    return buy_signals, sell_signals\n\nbuy_signals, sell_signals = generate_signals(y_pred)\n\nplt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'], btc_data['price'], label='Actual Price')\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'].iloc[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(np.arange(1, n_days + 1), unit='D'), y_pred, label='Predicted Price', color='orange')\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'].iloc[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(np.arange(1, n_days + 1), unit='D'), buy_signals, marker='^', color='g', label='Buy Signal', markersize=10)\nplt.plot(btc_data['Date'].iloc[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(np.arange(1, n_days + 1), unit='D'), sell_signals, marker='v', color='r', label='Sell Signal', markersize=10)\nplt.title('Buy\/Sell Signals based on Predictions')\nplt.xlabel('Date')\nplt.ylabel('Price in USD')\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\n
9. \uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc88c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. GPR\uc740 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc798 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc5d0 \uc751\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n
\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uac1c\uc120\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ud53c\uccd0\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ud558\uace0, \ub2e4\ub978 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc744 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ud574\ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uc88b\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4, \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640\uc758 \ud1b5\ud569\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub354\uc6b1 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n
\ub05d\uc73c\ub85c, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774\ub098 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\uc758 \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub294 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub3d9\ubc18\ub428\uc744 \uc78a\uc9c0 \ub9c8\uc138\uc694. \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc640 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ud6c4\uc5d0 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uc6b4\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
<\/body><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\uc758 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \uae30\ubc95 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc778 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd \uac1c\uc694 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\uc758 \ud55c \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubc95\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc740 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc758 \ud558\uc704 \ubd84\uc57c\ub85c, \uc778\uacf5\uc2e0\uacbd\ub9dd\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0(GPR) \uae30\ubc18 \uac00\uaca9 \uc608\uce21  \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b0\uc2dc\uc548 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ud68c\uadc0 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