\nimport numpy as np\nimport pandas as pd\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub85c\ub4dc (\uc608: CSV \ud30c\uc77c)\ndata = pd.read_csv('bitcoin_prices.csv')\nreturns = data['Close'].pct_change().dropna()\n\n# VaR \uacc4\uc0b0 (95% \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc218\uc900)\nalpha = 0.05\nVaR = np.percentile(returns, alpha * 100)\n\nprint(f\"95% Confidence Level VaR: {VaR:.2%}\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc\ub294 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uc885\uac00\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uace0, 95% \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c VaR\ub97c \ucd9c\ub825\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uc81c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. VaR \uac12\uc740 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4 \uae08\uc561\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
3. \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131<\/h2>\n3.1 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac<\/h3>\n
\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc218\uc9d1\ud55c \ud6c4, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\uc2dc\ud0a4\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc804\ucc98\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c4\ud589\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\uc5ec \uc785\ub825 \ud2b9\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\nimport ta # Technical Analysis library\nimport pandas as pd\n\n# \uac00\uaca9 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub85c\ub4dc\ndata = pd.read_csv('bitcoin_prices.csv')\n\n# \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c \ucd94\uac00\ndata['SMA_20'] = data['Close'].rolling(window=20).mean()\ndata['SMA_50'] = data['Close'].rolling(window=50).mean()\ndata['RSI'] = ta.momentum.RSIIndicator(data['Close']).rsi()\n\n# NaN \uac12 \uc81c\uac70\ndata.dropna(inplace=True)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n3.2 \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378 \ud6c8\ub828<\/h3>\n
\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc131\ud55c \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc785\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud6c8\ub828\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c\ub294 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \ub79c\ub364 \ud3ec\ub808\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ubd84\ub958\uae30\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\nfrom sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier\nfrom sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n\n# \uc785\ub825 \ubcc0\uc218\uc640 \ubaa9\ud45c \ubcc0\uc218 \uc124\uc815\nX = data[['SMA_20', 'SMA_50', 'RSI']]\ny = (data['Close'].shift(-1) > data['Close']).astype(int) # \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774\uba74 1, \ud558\ub77d\uc774\uba74 0\n\n# \ud6c8\ub828 \ubc0f \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c \ubd84\ud560\nX_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)\n\n# \ubaa8\ub378 \ud6c8\ub828\nmodel = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100)\nmodel.fit(X_train, y_train)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n3.3 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638 \uc0dd\uc131<\/h3>\n
\ud6c8\ub828\ub41c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0dd\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 1\uc77c \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc138\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc218 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\n# \uc608\uce21\npredictions = model.predict(X_test)\n\n# \uacb0\uacfc \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\nresult = pd.DataFrame({'Actual': y_test, 'Predicted': predictions})\nresult['Date'] = data['Date'].iloc[-len(predictions):].values\nresult.set_index('Date', inplace=True)\n\nplt.figure(figsize=(14,7))\nplt.plot(result['Actual'], label='\uc2e4\uc81c', color='black')\nplt.plot(result['Predicted'], label='\uc608\uce21', color='orange')\nplt.title('\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2e0\ud638')\nplt.xlabel('\ub0a0\uc9dc')\nplt.ylabel('\uc2e0\ud638')\nplt.legend()\nplt.show()\n<\/code><\/pre>\n4. \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac \uc804\ub7b5<\/h2>\n
\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc778 \uc6b4\uc601\uc744 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uac00 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n
4.1 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n
\ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ub2e8\uc77c \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud560 \ub54c\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\ub098 \uc8fc\uc2dd, \ucc44\uad8c \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc88b\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.2 \uc190\uc808\ub9e4 \uc124\uc815<\/h3>\n
\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uc9c4\ud589\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ud070 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc608\ubc29\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, 5% \uc190\uc2e4 \uc2dc \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4.3 VaR\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1<\/h3>\n
\uc815\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c VaR\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uc5ec \uc704\ud5d8 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0, \uc774\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. VaR\uac00 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud22c\uc790 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ub9ac\ubc38\ub7f0\uc2f1\uc744 \uc2e4\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uacb0\ub860<\/h2>\n
\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc810\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac \uc5c6\uc774\ub294 \ud070 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc78a\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc544\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. VaR\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc218\ub9bd\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc124\uba85\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\ub4e4\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub78d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uac10\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
<\/body><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ub9ce\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud22c\uc790 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ub178\ub825\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc778 Value at Risk (VaR)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub780? \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc774\ub098 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 “\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac Value at Risk (VaR)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95.”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-29"],"yoast_head":"\n\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac Value at Risk (VaR)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95. - \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/31387\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac Value at Risk (VaR)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95. - \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ub9ce\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud22c\uc790 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ub178\ub825\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc778 Value at Risk (VaR)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub780? \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998\uc774\ub098 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\ub9e4\ub97c \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 … \ub354 \ubcf4\uae30 "\ub525\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc790\ub3d9\ub9e4\ub9e4, \uba38\uc2e0\ub7ec\ub2dd \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac Value at Risk (VaR)\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95."\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/atmokpo.com\/w\/31387\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\ub77c\uc774\ube0c\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-28T12:01:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-26T06:45:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"root\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" 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